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Permafrost Carbon Network |
Expert surveys:
Three Expert surveys have been performed under the umbrella of the Permafrost Carbon Network
Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment
We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr−1, respectively.
Sayedi SS, Abbott BW, Thornton BF, Frederick JM, Vonk JE, Overduin P, Schädel C, Schuur EAG, Bourbonnais A, Demidov N, Gavrilov A, He S, Hugelius G, Jakobsson M, Jones MC, Joung D, Kraev G, Macdonald RW, McGuire AD, Mu C, O’Regan M, Schreiner KM, Stranne C, Pizhankov E, Vasiliev A, Westermann S, Zarnetske JP, Zhang T, Ghandehari M, Baeumler S, Brown BC, Frei RJ (2020). Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 15(12), 124075 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29
Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment
Scientists who study climate and ecosystems in the Arctic have weighed in on future changes in the region affecting soils, streams and wildfire, which will be releasing greater amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Abbott BW, Jones JBJ, Schuur EAG, Chapin FSI, Bowden WB, Bret-Harte MS, Epstein HE, Flannigan MD, Harms TK, Hollingsworth TN, Mack MC, McGuire AD, Natali S, M., Rocha AV, Tank SE, Turetsky M, R., Vonk JE, Wickland KP, Aiken GR, Alexander HD, Amon RMW, Bensoter BW, Bergeron Y, Bishop K, Blarquez O, Bond-Lamberty B, Breen AL, Buffam I, Cai Y, Carcaillet C, Carey SK, Chen JM, Chen HYH, Christensen TR, Cooper LW, Cornelissen JHC, de Groot WJ, DeLuca TH, Dorrepaal E, Fetcher N, Finlay JC, Forbes BC, French NHF, Gauthier S, Girardin MP, Goetz SJ, Goldammer JG, Gouch L, Grogan P, Guo L, Higuera PE, Hinzman L, Hu FS, Hugelius G, Jafarov EE, Jandt R, Johnstone JF, Karlsson J, Kasischke ES, Kattner G, Kelly R, Keuper F, Kling GW, Kortelainen P, Kouki J, Kuhry P, Laudon H, Laurion I, Macdonald RW, Mann PJ, Martikainen PJ, McClelland JW, Molau U, Oberbauer SF, Olefeldt D, Paré D, Parisien M-A, Payette S, Peng C, Pokrovksy OS, Rastetter EB, Raymond PA, Raynolds MK, Rein G, Reynolds JF, Robard M, Rogers BM, Schädel C, Schaefer K, Schmidt IK, Shvidenko A, Sky J, Spencer RGM, Starr G, Striegl RG, Teisserenc R, Tranvik LJ, Virtanen T, Welker JM, Zimov S (2016) Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment. Environmental Research Letters, 11, 034014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/11/3/034014
High risk of permafrost thaw
Schuur EAG, Abbott BW, Bowden WB, Brovkin V, Camill P, Canadell JP, Chapin III FS, Christensen TR, Chanton JP, Ciais P, Crill PM, Crosby BT, Czimczik CI, Grosse G, Hayes DJ, Hugelius G, Jastrow JD, Kleinen T, Koven CD, Krinner G, Kuhry P, Lawrence DM, Natali SM, Ping CL, Rinke A, Riley WJ, Romanovsky VE, Sannel ABK, Schädel C, Schaefer K, Subin ZM, Tarnocai C, Turetsky M, Walter-Anthony KM, Wilson CJ, Zimov SA. Nature 480, 32-33 | doi:10.1038/480032a
Schuur EAG, Abbott BW, Bowden WB, Brovkin V, Camill P, Canadell JG, Chanton JP, Chapin FS, III, Christensen TR, Ciais P, Crosby BT, Czimczik CI, Grosse G, Harden J, Hayes DJ, Hugelius G, Jastrow JD, Jones JB, Kleinen T, Koven CD, Krinner G, Kuhry P, Lawrence DM, McGuire AD, Natali SM, O’Donnell JA, Ping CL, Riley WJ, Rinke A, Romanovsky VE, Sannel ABK, Schädel C, Schaefer K, Sky J, Subin ZM, Tarnocai C, Turetsky MR, Waldrop MP, Walter Anthony KM, Wickland KP, Wilson CJ, Zimov SA (2013) Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change. Climatic Change, 119, 2. 359-374, doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0730-7. Download pdf.
Survey participants: Expert Name and Affiliation (at the time of publications)
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
University of Vermont, Burlington, VT
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Bowdoin College, Brunswick, ME
Global Carbon Project CSIRO, Canberra, Australia
Florida State University, Tallahassee, FL
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
Lund University, Lund, Sweden
LSCE, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID
; University of California, Irvine, CA
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA
CNRS/UJF-Grenoble 1, LGGE, Grenoble, France
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO
U.S. Geological Survey, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO
University of Florida, Gainesville, FL
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA
AgriFoods, Ottawa, Canada
University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA
University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK
U.S. Geological Survey, Boulder, CO
Department of Energy, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Santa Fe, NM
North-East Scientific Station Director, Cherskii, Siberia
EAGS and BWA designed the permafrost carbon survey along with FSC III, with additional input from Jeremy B. Jones (UAF). The survey used here was modified from an earlier version developed for the Dangerous Climate Change Project (DanCCAP) lead by Mark New and Jasper Sky as a coordinated effort between Oxford University and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research. EAGS and BWA implemented the survey with experts that attended a three-day workshop in June 2011 in Seattle, WA, USA, as part of the Vulnerability of Permafrost Carbon Research Coordination Network (RCN). In addition, three other experts (FSC, PC, SZ) who were unable to attend the workshop but were previously involved in the survey and/or workshop development process, returned surveys. EAGS wrote text with discussion and feedback from all experts. JH, ADM, KPW, JAO and MW (U.S. Geological Survey) participated in the survey but did not contribute to authorship of the Nature Comment, Nicola Jones provided expert editorial assistance throughout the process.
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