Permafrost Carbon Network

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change in permafrost distribution

The mean extent of permafrost estimated for the time periods (a) 1990–2000, (b) 2040–2050, and (d) 2090–2100 based on simulations of Euskirchen et al. (2006). The pink area in panels (c) and (e) indicates the loss of permafrost between panels (a) and (b) and between panels (a) and (d), respectively (source: McGuire et al. 2009).
spatial scale

The spatial domain for the Product 1 and Product 2 simulation Protocol. The domain is divided into regions that match TransCom 3 regions and covers all continuous, discontinuous, sporadic, and isolated permafrost regions. Non-permafrost regions (grey) and regions dominated by glaciers (pink) are not part of the domain. (Credit: A.D. McGuire)

 

Maps of fractional carbon losses over the period 2010–2100 calculated by the PInc-PanTher scaling approach at
four depths and two warming scenarios using CLM4.5 soil temperatures as an example driving soil climate dataset. Details can be found in Koven et al. 2015

 

 

Working Group: Upscaling and Modeling of Permafrost Carbon

Background and Objectives:

Important insights about the impact of carbon release from permafrost thaw on future climate have been derived from uncoupled dynamic ecosystem model and coupled carbon-climate model simulations, but there is still a great deal of uncertainty on the future rate of permafrost degradation in response to climate warming. Moreover, our understanding of the responses of the coupled hydrological and carbon cycles to permafrost degradation across spatial and temporal scales is very limited, as is our predictive capability regarding the resulting changes to biogeochemical cycles. Earth System Model (ESM) simulations have suggested that substantial permafrost thaw could happen during the 21st Century, but these results have been controversial due to structural limitations in the class of land models used in ESMs and due to biases in simulated soil temperatures associated with ESM climate biases.

 

Key questions we are adressing in the Model Integration working group are:

  • The need to assess the current state of the models that are attempting to represent permafrost and the interactions among permafrost, hydrology, carbon, and nitrogen dynamics

  • The need to conduct a state-of-the-art assessment on the vulnerability of permafrost carbon that could tie into the IPCC process

  • The production of a synthesis paper on conceptual approaches that should be embraced by coupled permafrost-carbon models.

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    Completed synthesis Products

    Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change

    In this model intercomparison project, changes in permafrost and carbon storage in the northern permafrost region are simulated from 2010 to 2299. The results show that controlling greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades could substantially reduce the consequences of carbon releases from thawing permafrost during the next 300 years.

    McGuire AD, Lawrence DM, Koven CD, Clein J, Burke EJ, Chen G, Jafarov E, MacDougall A, Marchenko S, Nicolsky D, Peng S-S, Rinke A, Ciais P, Gouttevin I, Hayes D, Ji D, Krinner G, Moore J, Romanovsky V, Schädel C, Schaefer K, Schuur EAG, Zhuang Q (2018) The dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the Northern Permafrost Region on the trajectory of climate change Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115, (15), 3882-3887 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1719903115

     

    Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009

    This project evaluates model projections of vulnerability of the permafrost region by comparing 15 land surface model simulations including carbon cycle processes and permafrost for two time periods. Results from this model intercomparison help evaluate how differences in model structure and parameterization influence projected uptake and release of carbon for the permafrost region in the current and future climate.

    McGuire AD, Koven C, Lawrence DM, Clein JS, Xia J, Beer C, Burke E, Chen G, Chen X, Delire C, Jafarov E, MacDougall AH, Marchenko S, Nicolsky D, Peng S, Rinke A, Saito K, Zhang W, Alkama R, Bohn TJ, Ciais P, Decharme B, Ekici A, Gouttevin I, Hajima T, Hayes DJ, Ji D, Krinner G, Lettenmaier DP, Luo Y, Miller PA, Moore JC, Romanovsky V, Schädel C, Schaefer K, Schuur EAG, Smith B, Sueyoshi T, Zhuang Q (2016) Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. doi:10.1002/2016GB005405

     

    A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback

    A team of researchers developed a model that accounts for the atmospheric effect of emissions released from carbon sequestered in thawing permafrost. Compared with Earth system models, which consider much larger amounts of information in a global system, the research team used a simpler model, aiming to find clearer connections between the specific data entered and resulting projections. This modeling approach was highly data-constraint using data from recent syntheses from the Permafrost Carbon Network

    Koven CD, Schuur EAG, Schädel C, Bohn TJ, Burke EJ, Chen G, Chen X, Ciais P, Grosse G, Harden JW, Hayes DJ, Hugelius G, Jafarov EE, Krinner G, Kuhry P, Lawrence DM, Macdougall AH, Marchenko SS, Mcguire AD, Natali SM, Nicolsky DJ, Olefeldt D, Peng S, Romanovsky VE, Schaefer KM, Strauss J, Treat CC, Turetsky M (2015) A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 373, DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0423

     

    For more details on this working group send an email to Ted Schuur

     

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